China's photovoltaic industry's road to globalization has never been smooth, but it is destined to be a journey.

2596.03MW ! In March 2023 , China's monthly photovoltaic module exports to G7 countries reached a record high. However, just one year later, the figure plummeted to 1346.94MW . Behind this drastic decline lies a life-or-death struggle between China's photovoltaic industry and global trade policies.

Eight years, 96 months, and behind each set of customs data lies the difficult breakthrough and resilient growth of China's photovoltaic industry in the G7 market. From a monthly average of less than 700MW in 2017 to a stable monthly average of around 2000MW in 2024 , China's photovoltaic module exports to the G7 countries have more than tripled . But this journey has been by no means smooth.

The total amount has jumped, and there is a hidden mystery

Data is the most brutal judge. From 2017 to 2025 , China's photovoltaic module exports to G7 countries followed an astonishing upward trend. However, three hidden ups and downs are worth pondering:

• 2018-2019 : After the "531" new policy, domestic demand plummeted, and companies were forced to go overseas to survive. Export data exceeded 1000MW for the first time.
• 2020-2021 : Global green recovery after the epidemic, export volume achieved a triple jump from 1500MW to 2500MW
• 2022-2023 : The Russia-Ukraine conflict triggers a European energy crisis, ushering in a historic opportunity for Chinese module exports
• 2023-2024 : Inventory backlogs, intensified trade barriers, data falling from high levels, the industry enters a period of deep adjustment
• Data in the first half of 2025 showed an upward trend again, with exports reaching 2,317.60MW in June , indicating that a new cycle may be beginning.
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Price cliff:

The cruel truth behind the precipitous drop in average module prices

Data doesn't lie, but it often reveals harsh truths. From January 2017 to June 2025 , the price trend of Chinese photovoltaic modules exported to G7 countries is shocking:

• Early 2017 : Average price reached $ 0.38 /W , with substantial industry gross profit margins.
• 2018-2019 : After the "531" new policy, the price started to decline and fell below the $ 0.3 mark.
• 2020 : After a brief impact from the epidemic, the price accelerated to the range of $ 0.2-0.25
• 2022 : The Russia-Ukraine conflict leads to a short-term supply-demand mismatch, and prices temporarily stabilize.
• 2023-2024 : Bloody price drop period, the average price plummeted from $ 0.22 to $ 0.09
• First half of 2025 : The price rebounded slightly to around $ 0.1 , but it is still at a historical low.

The 73.7% price drop over eight years reflects the dual strengths of China's photovoltaic industry's extreme cost-cutting capabilities and fierce market competition. The average export price, now at just $ 0.10 per watt , has already approached or even broken through the cost lines of second- and third-tier manufacturers.

The Seven Kingdoms: A Huge Change of Pattern

The demand landscape for Chinese PV panels from G7 countries has undergone tremendous changes over the past eight years. The once dominant markets have gradually declined, while emerging demand centers have rapidly emerged.

The United States: A " Lost Land " Under Trade Barriers

The data curve of the US market is a history of Sino-US photovoltaic trade friction:

• After the 2018 "201 tariffs " , exports plummeted from nearly 500MW per month to less than 10MW.
• The implementation of the UFLPA in 2022 will further stifle direct trade.
• The export volume in June 2025 was only 123.58MW , which is almost negligible.

For Chinese component manufacturers, the US market has become a mirage : they can see the demand, but cannot reach the market. Companies can only export through Southeast Asian production capacity, and direct trade data no longer reflects true market penetration.

Japan : Once a giant, now in decline

Once China's largest module export market, Japan has experienced a shift from peak to mediocrity over the past eight years. In 2017 , Japan's monthly exports reached 658.12MW , far exceeding the G7 countries.

However, by June 2025 , Japan's exports had fallen to 448.31MW , with its market share shrinking from over 80% in the early years to less than 20% . The reshoring of domestic manufacturing and supply chain diversification are weakening the absolute dominance of Chinese modules in the Japanese market.

Three European countries: the absolute main force, accounting for more than 80%

The European iron triangle consisting of Germany, France, and Italy has become the absolute main force of China's module exports to the G7 . By June 2025 , the three countries will account for more than 80% of the total , including:

• Germany: 383.03MW , accounting for 16.5% -  a stable base
• France: 547.63MW , accounting for 23.6% -  a new growth pole that exploded in the late stage
• Italy: 333.39MW , accounting for 14.4% -  a potential market with upward fluctuations

The collective surge in the European market stems directly from the demand for energy independence following the Russia-Ukraine conflict. Europeans voted with their money, choosing Chinese photovoltaics as the optimal solution for their energy transition.

UK and Canada: Stable but marginal supporting roles

The UK market has developed an independent trend after Brexit, with exports of 465.84MW in June 2025 , showing steady performance; Canada has always been a small market in the G7 , with monthly exports remaining below 50MW for a long time .

The industry's life and death crisis behind the data

Inventory Tragedy:The Truth Behind the 2023-2024 MarketPullback

The historical peak of 2,596.03MW at the beginning of 2023 was both the apex of the carnival and the beginning of a nightmare. European channel inventory climbed sharply, reaching over 80GW at one point , far exceeding reasonable levels.

What follows is:

• Module prices plummet, from $ 0.28 /W in 2022 to $ 0.12 /W in early 2024
• Orders are postponed or even cancelled, putting pressure on companies' shipments
• Export data has been declining for several consecutive months, and the industry has entered a cold winter period.
• This inventory crisis is essentially the inevitable result of a mismatch between supply and demand, and is also a cruel process of market self-regulation.

Trade barriers : The sword of Damocles hanging high

Over the past eight years, Chinese photovoltaic companies have encountered almost all forms of trade barriers imposed by G7 countries:

• US: Anti- dumping and countervailing duties + Section 201 tariffs + UFLPA , adding layers of pressure
• Europe: After the cancellation of the Minimum Price Agreement ( MIP ), new barriers such as carbon barriers and social responsibility have emerged again.
• India: Although not a G7 country, its BCD tariffs have far-reaching impact

The ability to navigate trade barriers has become a core competitive advantage for Chinese photovoltaic companies. From direct exports to overseas factory construction, and from product exports to capacity exports, China's photovoltaic industry is reshaping its path to globalization.

Future Outlook: A New Landscape After Nirvana

European market: Destocking is over and demand is returning to rationality

The stabilization and recovery of data in the first half of 2025 indicates that the destocking in Europe is nearing completion. The European market will present new characteristics in the future:

• Demand stabilization: Annual new installed capacity is expected to remain at 60-80GW
• Price rationalization: Component prices return to a reasonable range, ending the era of exorbitant profits
• Stringent requirements: Increasing demands on carbon footprint, traceability, and social responsibility

 US market: Indirect exports will become the mainstream

The door to direct exports to the United States is almost closed, but the US market will not give up on Chinese photovoltaic technology. Saving the country through the curve of Southeast Asian production capacity will become the mainstream model:

• Longi, JinkoSolar, and JA Solar already have large production capacity in Southeast Asia.
• Domestic manufacturing costs in the United States are high, making it difficult to completely replace imports
• The lure of subsidies under the Inflation Reduction Act is attracting Chinese companies to build factories in the United States

Technological iteration: the next breakthrough point

New technologies such as N- typeTOPCon,HJT,and perovskite will be key to maintaining China's competitive advantage in the photovoltaic industry.

• Obvious efficiency advantages and stronger premium capabilities
• The technical threshold is high, which can avoid homogeneous competition
• More in line with the European and American market's demand for high-efficiency products

Industry restructuring after prices hit bottom

• Short-term price wars will continue : Overcapacity is the root cause of the price war. By 2024 , global module production capacity will exceed 1,000GW , while demand will only be around 500GW . Second- and third-tier companies are clearing inventory to survive, which will continue to suppress price rebounds . Low raw material prices provide room for module price cuts .
• Prices will return to rationality in the medium and long term : survival pressure will force the exit of inefficient production capacity and increase industry concentration ; new technology iterations require R&D investment, and companies need reasonable profit support ; global production capacity layout increases costs, forcing prices to return to rationality .
• Corporate strategies have shifted from " seeking scale " to " seeking profit " : first-tier companies maintain reasonable profits through technological leadership and brand premium ; second-tier companies seek breakthroughs in niche markets or are forced to exit ; investment thresholds have been significantly increased, and the era of wild growth for new entrants has ended .

Eight years of export data record the conquest of China's photovoltaic industry in the G7 market - there have been moments of glory and dark times; it has encountered numerous obstacles, but it has always been able to break through and be reborn.

Behind these statistics lies the arduous transformation of China's photovoltaic industry from being controlled by others to a global leader . This battle will continue over the next eight years, but the rules of the game are evolving from " global manufacturing, Chinese exports " to " Chinese technology, global manufacturing . "

China's photovoltaic industry's road to globalization has never been smooth, but it is destined to be a journey.